By Benjamin Rothove
Wisconsin: Polling is looking very good for incumbent Senator Ron Johnson. Johnson went from trailing his opponent, Mandela Barnes, this summer to a steady lead in the last few weeks. Barnes is increasingly unpopular in the state, with ads highlighting his record on crime and many past controversies. Johnson is not particularly popular in the state either due to stepping back on his commitment to serve only two terms.
On the other hand, the Governor’s race is a tossup. Incumbent Governor Tony Evers is in a dead-heat race with challenger Tim Michels. Michels narrowly won a contested primary, so he has spent much of his time trying to ignite the Republican base. Evers has been facing trouble as well, primarily due to attacks on his record with education.
Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania is leaning blue in both the Senate and Gubernatorial races, but the Senate race is receiving much more attention due to the strange candidates. Television star Dr. Oz is the Republican nominee, and current lieutenant governor John Fetterman is the Democratic candidate. Oz has a record of making questionable statements, while Fetterman’s health issues have been highlighted recently.
Oregon: Oregon is perhaps the most surprising swing state. Oregon has gone longer without a Republican governor than any other state, but that looks like it will change. Two candidates are splitting the traditionally Democratic vote, allowing the Republican candidate, Christine Drazen, to take the lead while only polling at about 37%.
Rhode Island: While not a Senate or Gubernatorial race, the Congressional race for Rhode Island’s at-large congressional district is receiving national attention. Republican candidate Allan Fung is within striking distance of the Democratic candidate, which is surprising for the traditionally deep-blue state.
New York: The Democratic party is struggling when even New York is a swing state. While the Democrat incumbent Kathy Hochul is still in the lead, Republican candidate Lee Zeldin is officially polling within single digits, meaning that the race can go either way. Hochul’s record on crime is again the primary contention point. This summer, Zeldin was assaulted on a campaign stop. The assailant was let out on bail the next day. This month, there was a shooting outside of Zeldin’s house.
Arizona: The Arizona of Barry Goldwater and John McCain is no more; currently, the state has two Democratic senators. However, one of them is facing an uphill battle for reelection. Incumbent Mark Kelly is facing challenger Blake Masters, a Stanford-educated protégé of entrepreneur Peter Thiel. Masters and Kelly are in a close race that will be determined by voter turnout, which does not look good for Democrats. The Democrat candidate for governor has refused to debate Republican nominee Kari Lake, who has been making rounds on right-wing media in the last few weeks. Lake is expected to run away with the governorship, theoretically bringing Masters with her.
Georgia: Georgia is a lesson in how not to do politics. The Senate race is an embarrassment for both parties because of the Republican candidate, Herschel Walker. Walker is a Heisman Trophy winner but has intelligence consistent with hitting his head a few too many times. Walker has had many blunders, including hiding secret children, lying about his academic record, and claiming to be a police officer because he has a fake badge. What is more embarrassing, perhaps, is that the Democratic candidate is so bad that this election is even a tossup.
The gubernatorial race is even stranger. Incumbent Republican Brian Kemp won his primary election against a Trump-backed challenger and still has not received the former president’s endorsement. He is facing Stacey Abrams, the same Democratic candidate as 2018. Abrams is notable for refusing to concede the election and calling herself the legitimate governor of Georgia. Kemp has a commanding lead, so an upset is unlikely.
New Hampshire: In a rare turn, the Democratic incumbent Senator in New Hampshire is pulling ahead as we move closer to election day. Strangely, Republican incumbent Governor Chris Sununu holds a commanding lead as well. However, the real race watch is for the state’s at-large congressional district. If the GOP wins this seat, the youngest Congresswoman ever could be elected.
Nevada: Nevada has been a bit of a sleeper and is now one of the closest races in the nation. None of the candidates are particularly interesting, so national attention has been slim. Right now, it appears like Republicans will win the governorship, but the Senate election is a tossup.
Ohio: The Senate race in Ohio is particularly interesting because it should have been an easy win for Republicans. The GOP candidate, J.D. Vance, is an author and attorney whose life was recently adapted to the film “Hillbilly Elegy”, directed by Ron Howard. His challenger, congressman Tim Ryan, was recovering from an embarrassingly bad presidential campaign. While this seat will still probably go to Republicans, the Ohio of yesteryear is no more.