By Benjamin Rothove
On August 8, 1974, Richard Nixon announced that he would resign from the presidency, effective noon on August 8th. No President had resigned before, and no president has resigned since. Less than two years earlier, Richard Nixon had been reelected winning 49 of the 50 states. Now, he was stepping down in disgrace. Nixon left a permanent stain on the Presidency, and the government can never be trusted by the American people in the way it once was. It looked then like the Republican Party had died.
In the election after Nixon’s resignation, Americans voted in the friendly face of Jimmy Carter. Carter carried little political baggage and is still seen as a good person today. However, that is not enough for a successful presidency. The presidential term of Jimmy Carter was defined by high inflation, flawed foreign policy, and low approval ratings. (Sound familiar?) The American people did not see Jimmy Carter as a leader.
After the failure of Jimmy Carter’s administration, it quickly became apparent that Americans needed a change in the White House. But the American public did not want to see Nixon’s Republican Party return. They needed to look backwards in order to move forward. In 1964, Senator Barry Goldwater was selected as the presidential nominee for the Republican Party after Nixon failed to win the 1960 election. Goldwater was, for all intents and purposes, a libertarian who believed in strong foreign policy. But Goldwater was ahead of his time, and decisively lost that election to the liberal Lyndon Johnson.
In 1980, conservatives in America saw that it was time for a rightward shift, but they needed a new face. They found him in Ronald Reagan, a former Hollywood actor-turned governor of California. Reagan had sought the presidency twice before, in 1968 and 1976, narrowly losing the nomination in both cases. In 1980, however, the times had changed. Americans trusted Ronald Reagan. Americans needed Ronald Reagan.
For at least 20 years after 1980, Reaganism was the Republican Party, and Reaganism was the Democratic Party. The latter claim is controversial, but Bill Clinton’s administration could easily be seen as a response to America’s rightward shift. Clinton governed as a moderate, and his platform in 1996 was almost identical to Bob Dole’s.
The Republican Party desperately needs a new Ronald Reagan. Donald Trump is the Richard Nixon of today, as Joe Biden is the new Jimmy Carter. This is, of course, an imperfect analogy, but it is fitting for our purposes.
American Conservatism is in shambles. In order to modernize, conservatives in America are in desperate need of five factors: an intellectual base, a clear direction, a moral compass, a broad appeal, and a leader.
First, an intellectual base. In the late 20th century, the Republican party had the support of well-respected public intellectuals such as William F. Buckley, Jr. and Milton Friedman. After Firing Line with William F. Buckley, Jr. went off the air and Milton Friedman retired, the Republican party struggled to find an intellectual starting point. Because of this, Conservatism spiraled out in many directions, leading to diverse factions such as the Tea Party and Neoconservatives. We are beginning to see the rise of a new intellectual base, with figures such as Ben Shapiro (Harvard Law School), Jordan Peterson (Ph.D. from McGill University), and Glenn Loury (Ph.D. from MIT). With the rise of YouTube and TikTok, older clips of individuals such as Thomas Sowell (Ph.D. from The University of Chicago) and Walter E. Williams (Ph.D. from UCLA) have become extremely popular among young people. Moreover, institutions such as Hillsdale College, George Mason University, the University of Austin, and the Hoover Institution of Stanford University will continue to provide intellectual backing for the conservative movement.
Secondly, Conservatism needs a clear direction. In 1980, Republicans decided that it was time for the Republican Party to move to the right. In the 2010s, some Republicans attempted this with the Tea Party. However, the lack of leadership within the Tea Party led to it becoming an unprincipled populist movement. This cannot be the future. Right now, the main question that Conservatives have has to do with social issues. Should the Republican Party stick to Judeo-Christian values, or do they give in to the liberalization of the American public? Conservatives are becoming increasingly successful targeting issues such as immigration, school choice, and radical gender theory, providing evidence that a broad social shift has not occurred in the way it may appear.
Third, Conservatives need a moral compass. This is very simple; the values that conservatives promulgate must be the values that they follow. This means upholding the rule of law, obeying traditional family values, and avoid interfering with the free market.
Fourth, Republicans need a broad appeal. This is one thing, I will concede, that Donald Trump did correctly. Most Americans dislike the “coastal elites”. While Trump himself was an elite, his anti-elitist message resonated with the established Republican Party as well as with many traditionally Democratic voters. Americans are angry about the direction of the country. Republicans need to appeal to the anxiety that Americans have about criminals on the street, the butchery of children, the failing education system, the unpredictable economic policy of the last half-century, and the radicalization of the media. This way, the party of conservatives will become the party of America.
Finally, the Republican Party needs a leader. If the Republican Party wishes to survive, that leader cannot be Donald Trump. It cannot be Marjorie Taylor Greene, it cannot be Matt Gaetz, it cannot be Alex Jones. Many on the Right have confused attention with positive attention. The American public needs an adult in the room, someone who can handle the pressure of politics while remaining principled. Right now, it appears that the future of the party is in Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
I recently had the opportunity to attend a speech given by DeSantis. He has a particular ability to combine effective political stunts and popular public policy. In the past week, DeSantis sent a plane of migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, a supposed sanctuary city, to highlight the surge of illegal immigration at the border. Soon after, DeSantis announced a plan to eliminate taxes on everything from books to medical supplies. This effective political strategy flipped Florida from a Democratic-leaning state to a Republican stronghold.
In the late 20th century, a Republican president left office in disgrace, only to be succeeded by a Democrat whose administration was widely considered to be a failure. Soon after, a Republican Governor named Ronald from a populous state ascended to the Presidency and changed American politics forever. If Republicans can finally move on from Donald Trump, this story could be repeated in 2024.